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Which countries have the most EVs? And why is 5% adoption important?

The EU-reka effect

Author

Future Money
April 18, 2024

⚡ Five Second Summary:

Electric vehicles (EVs) are following a familiar trend for new technology industries.

31 countries have now passed the 5% tipping point in new car sales, 18 of which are EU members. 

Despite hurdles, like supply chain snags, the EV scene is upbeat. Falling battery prices and better infrastructure are likely to accelerate the global shift. 

📊 The Chart

(Source)

🤔 What's Happening:

  • 31 countries now surpass the 5% tipping point in new car sales, with more than 50% of them being EU countries.

  • Thailand and Turkey exemplify rapid EV adoption driven by domestic production and competitive models.

  • Consumer preferences for larger vehicles and demands for longer range hinder US EV adoption.

  • The US has been slower to adopt hybrids, with a broader tipping point at 10% market share.

  • Two-thirds of world auto sales now come from countries surpassing the EV tipping point.

🔢 Numbers + Facts:

  • 19 surpassed the 5% tipping point in 2022, with now 31 countries in 2024.

  • Trajectory shows that EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new car sales in under four years.

  • Global EV sales are projected to increase by about 22% annually, sustaining long-term adoption.

🔮 Looking Ahead:

  • India, Indonesia, and Poland are potentially approaching the tipping point, driving global EV evolution.

  • Continued expansion of EV infrastructure globally to support increasing adoption rates (especially charging stations which remains a key pain point for consumers).

  • Continued improvements in EV technology, including advancements in battery efficiency and range.

📈 The Company: Kuniko (ASX: KNI)

Market Cap: $21M | Share Price: $0.24 | Industry: Mining

Kuniko (ASX: KNI) holds a portfolio of battery metals exploration assets (copper, nickel, and cobalt) in Norway with a mandate to maintain carbon neutrality in all its operations.

KNI recently released a JORC resource estimate for its nickel-copper-cobalt project, aiming to address the EU’s shortage of locally sourced critical minerals.

KNI is backed by leading EU automaker Stellantis who invested $7.8M into KNI at 46.7c per share and signed an offtake term sheet signed with KNI for nickel and cobalt production from the company’s projects. 

How does KNI fit into the story?

Nickel is essential in the manufacture of EV batteries and the latest rebound in the nickel price has implications for KNI’s future efforts to build a nickel mine.

The EU has deemed nickel a critical raw material, and as a result, KNI could benefit from a bifurcated nickel market in which a premium is attached to locally sourced or high ESG-standard production.

More generally, nickel production from sources outside of China and Indonesia could stand to benefit from there being two different nickel prices.

📰 Mainstream Media Coverage

“Once 5% of new-car sales go fully electric, everything changes”

Bloomberg

“In practice, 5% is the limit beyond which mass adoption takes place.”

Sustainability And Environment Network